Asymmetric Inflation Persistence in Latin America: Evidence from Chile, Colombia, and Peru Using Quantile Autoregression Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.60758/laer.v37i.565Keywords:
Inflation rate, quantile autoregression, asymmetry, stationarityAbstract
This paper examines asymmetric inflation persistence in Chile, Colombia, and Peru using quantile autoregression analysis on monthly data from 1992 to 2023. Unlike traditional methods assuming uniform adjustment speeds, this methodology identifies asymmetric adjustment patterns at different distribution quantiles. We find that inflation in all three economies exhibits global stationarity but with significant asymmetries: positive inflation shocks demonstrate substantially greater persistence than negative shocks. The unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected at and above the 60th, 70th, and 80th quantiles for Colombia, Chile, and Peru respectively, indicating high-inflation episodes persist while negative deviations dissipate rapidly. Inflation targeting regimes have successfully reduced overall persistence across all quantiles while maintaining the asymmetric pattern. This study provides the first comprehensive quantile autoregression analysis for these countries, offering empirical support for asymmetric monetary policy responses and practical guidance for central banks regarding differential treatment of positive versus negative inflation shocks.
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